بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question:
The American attacks on Iran and the Iranian reactions to those attacks have continued for more than three months. (“The US command stated that it carried out precision strikes targeting an Iranian ground-based military command station on Qeshm Island. In response, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that it targeted a US base in the region.” (Al Jazeera, 3/6/2026)). Similarly, the attacks by the Jewish entity on southern Lebanon continue. (“Clashes continued overnight between “Israel” and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, despite Trump's announcement that both sides had agreed to a cessation of hostilities before a new round of negotiations between Lebanon and “Israel”, scheduled to take place today in Washington.” (BBC, 2/6/2026)). On 28/2/2026, America, along with its protégé, the Jewish entity, launched an aggression against Iran that lasted for approximately 40 days, killing around 40 senior political and military officials, including its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The plan was to overthrow the regime or transform it from a satellite state into a subordinate state. However, this did not happen. This was followed by indirect negotiations in Pakistan between Iran and the America, punctuated by proposals from both sides, a back-and-forth between American and its protégé, the Jewish entity, and Iranian responses. No agreement has yet been reached on any proposal. So, what is Iran's current position? Has it become an independent state, remains a satellite state, or is it wavering between the two? Jazakum Allah Khair.
Answer:
To answer the questions above, we review the following matters:
1- When America, along with the Jewish entity, launched an aggression against Iran on 28/2/2026 and killed about 40 of its political and military leaders, including its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is the highest official in the country, this action indicates that America is not satisfied with the leadership of Iran and its policies, and wants to get rid of this leadership and change these policies, because it noticed that this leadership has independent tendencies. Therefore, it wanted to bring in leaders who would be subservient to it. In response to a question dated 4/4/2026, titled "The War on Iran," we stated: (It appears that the calculations of America and the Jewish entity were flawed. When they launched their aggression against Iran, they set a short timeframe for the war, estimated at four days, with a massive, swift attack targeting its top leadership, nuclear facilities, and missile factories and launch sites. They assumed that once they struck the head of the regime and its top leaders, the second tier would surrender and submit to their terms, as happened in Venezuela when US forces kidnapped its president, and his vice president and her entourage surrendered to America. However, this did not happen in Iran after the assassination of its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and some of the regime's leaders. The Revolutionary Guard stood firm and decided to confront this aggression and attack the enemies…This indicates that America aimed to change the regime's policy from a satellite state to a dependent one, thus enabling it to dictate terms in negotiations with Iran. However, it failed to achieve this and decided to continue the war). The current situation in Iran is one of complete rupture with America, except for some telephone contact between officials in the foreign ministries of both countries and indirect communication through a third party, such as Pakistan.
2- The Iranian response was impactful, as it refused to back down or make concessions regarding the nuclear issue or the Strait of Hormuz. “The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that its response called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and the release of Iranian frozen assets abroad under the sanctions imposed years ago.” (Al-Arabiya, 12/5/2026). All of this indicates that the methods used by the US administration to deal with Iran and transform it into a subordinate state have failed, leading US officials to suggest a more patient approach to the Iranian issue.
3- When Trump failed to achieve his stated objective regarding Iran through a 40-day war and the killing of several top-tier leaders, he announced a 15-point plan. It is clear from the points of this plan that it is a surrender plan! It aims to strip Iran of its inherent capabilities, both missile and nuclear. This led to a strong reaction from the Revolutionary Guard, who refused to capitulate to Trump's terms. When Iran refused to surrender and insisted on its position and readiness to fight, America announced the resumption of negotiations to sign an agreement with it. It then dispatched its second-highest-ranking official, Vice President Vance, to Pakistan to negotiate with the Iranians on 11/4/2026. Vance said, "He [Trump] doesn’t want to make, like, a small deal. He wants to make the grand bargain…The United States had never had meetings at that level with the Iranian government in 49 years...In Pakistan, we made a ton of progress...The person who’s effectively running the country in Iran sitting across from the Vice President of the United States, that had never happened" (Fox News, 14/4/2026). It appears that the US president was eager for more when he saw Iran accept some of his conditions, as his deputy said, "That’s the kind of Trumpian grand bargain that the President has put on the table."
4- Trump then announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, just hours before the truce he had declared about two weeks prior was set to expire. [This extension, according to Trump, was intended to enable both countries to continue peace talks (Al Jazeera, 22/4/2026)]. However, Iran refused to negotiate under pressure, demanding the lifting of the US blockade on its ports. On 20/4/2026, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, "Operation Midnight Hammer (his 2025 war with the Jews) was a complete and total destruction of the nuclear dust (meaning enriched uranium) sites in Iran. Therefore, digging it out will be a long and difficult process." This was an attempt to soften his demand that Iran hand over the enriched uranium to him or a third party. He now seems more inclined to achieve his country's objectives through negotiations, as he believes achieving them through war is not easy, hence the flexibility in his positions. This explains the softening of his stance. The ceasefire is not time-bound, and extracting the approximately 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% is proving difficult.
5- On 13/4/2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi revealed on the X platform the details of the negotiations with the United States in Pakistan, where he was part of his country's delegation. He stated, "But when just inches away from ‘Islamabad MoU’, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade." This aligns with Trump's Vice President's statement that things were close to a certain agreement, but Trump wanted more! He wants Iran to surrender and become a subservient state like other countries in the region. He added, "there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership’...If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!" (Fox News, 25/4/2026).
6- Iran understands America's need to de-escalate tensions without a full-blown war, given Trump's domestic (political) situation and the potential loss of his party in the November midterm congressional elections. A loss in those elections would negatively impact his presidency, as he requires congressional approval on numerous issues, including waging war, and would also affect his chances in the presidential election two years later. Furthermore, Trump is mindful of America's hosting of the World Cup, which begins on 11/6/2026. Consequently, Iran has strengthened its position and declared its readiness to wage war once again against America and its protégé, the Jewish entity. This demonstrates that the faction within the Iranian regime (the Revolutionary Guard) is now acting at its will and decision, seeking independence from America, unlike the political faction, which desires to engage with America and work with it as a satellite state, at least, rather than a subordinate state.
7- Trump resorted to another tactic to pressure Iran. He announced on 4/5/2026, an operation called "Project Freedom" under the pretext of helping ships from countries he described as neutral and unrelated to the Middle East crisis to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. When this failed, he halted the operation. On the morning of 6/5/2026, he announced on his Truth Social platform the suspension of the operation, stating, “Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed."
8- On 6/5/2026, the American news website Axios quoted a Pakistani source as saying, "The White House believes it's getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war…the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz." This confirms that Trump is in a hurry to reach an agreement with Iran because resuming hostilities requires congressional approval, which is not guaranteed, and because resuming hostilities is also unpredictable, as he has already tried and failed. Similarly, his project to rescue ships stranded in the Gulf, in Operation Freedom, will take a long time to succeed and is fraught with risks, as Iran threatens retaliation, endangering the ships it hopes to rescue. It is noteworthy that Trump, the real estate mogul, wants to achieve quick and profitable political deals, treating politics like a business transaction!
9- [US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday his rejection of the response submitted by Iran through the Pakistani mediator to his proposal to end the war in the region. Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform, "I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" In the first comment on Trump's rejection of the Iranian response, Iranian television said, "Tehran's response to the American proposal to end the war, which Trump described as unacceptable, included an affirmation of the fundamental rights of the Iranian people." Iranian television added that Tehran rejected the American proposal because accepting it would be tantamount to surrender. It noted that the Iranian response also stressed the need for the United States to pay reparations for the war and affirmed Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz] (Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 11/5/2026).
10- This response angered US President Trump, who said on 12/5/2026: "The ceasefire is on massive life support, where the doctor walks in and says, sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living…They think that, well, I‘ll get tired of this, or I'll get bored, or I‘ll have some pressure." He added, "That piece of garbage (the Iranian response) they sent us, I didn't even finish reading it..." (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, 12/5/2026). However, he later added: "We'll see what happens, they want to make a deal, they want to negotiate...we’re not gonna let Iran have a nuclear weapon..." (Al Jazeera, 12/5/2026).
11- Then they returned to discussing amendments or improvements to the agreement. The Axios news website, as reported by Al-Najah News on 24/5/2026, quoted a US official as saying [that the United States and Iran were close to signing an agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. The agreement also stipulated that Iran would be able to sell oil freely and hold negotiations on curbing its nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz would be open during the 60-day period without tolls, and Iran would agree to remove the mines it had planted in the strait to allow free passage for ships. The report added that, in return, and as part of a proposed agreement, the United States would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil freely. The report stated that the draft agreement also included commitments from Iran never to pursue nuclear weapons and to negotiate the suspension of its uranium enrichment program and the removal of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The Axios report also stated that the US would agree to negotiate the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of Iranian assets during the 60 days period. The White House has yet to respond to the report...].
12- Al Arabiya reported on 29/5/2026, citing Reuters, [that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire, allow the lifting of restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, end the US blockade of Iranian ports, and lift some sanctions imposed on Iran. However, the agreement has not yet been finalized. Reaching an agreement would constitute a major step towards ending a war that has pushed the world into an energy crisis, but the fundamental disagreement over Iran's nuclear program will only be discussed in talks in the coming weeks. Trump's Vice President, Vance, said on Thursday, "We're not there yet, but we're very close and we're going to keep on working at it." Iran has not yet officially commented. However, the semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim quoted a source close to the negotiating team as saying that the text of the agreement has not yet been finalized or confirmed. It took years of negotiations between large teams of experts and specialists to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program in 2015. Trump withdrew from this agreement during his first presidential term in 2018” (Al Arabiya, 29/5/2026).
13- [The White House stated that President Trump would not finalize an agreement with Tehran unless all conditions were met. Axios quoted a US administration official as saying that announcing the agreement with Iran could take several days or more than a week until President Trump gets what he wants. According to the website, Trump's reservations include several points he wants amended in the agreement, such as: opening the Strait of Hormuz, the US obtaining enriched uranium, and modifications to the draft of Iran's nuclear program. The New York Times reported that Trump's new amendments, negotiated with the participation of Pakistani mediators, were returned to Tehran for consideration by the Iranian leadership. They indicated that a further delay in the official announcement of the agreement is expected due to the difficulty of direct communication with Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to tighten its naval blockade on Iranian ports (Al Jazeera, 31/5/2026)].
14- Meanwhile, as the agreement between Trump and Iran remains in flux, the Jewish entity continues its aggression against southern Lebanon:
A- [The ‘Israeli’ army stated that it seized Beaufort Castle following fierce clashes supported by heavy artillery and air cover, coinciding with a broad escalation that included the Nabatieh, Wadi al-Salouqi, and Wadi al-Hujeir regions. This escalation occurred within the context of confrontations with Hezbollah in Lebanon in the context of the US-‘Israeli’-Iranian conflict in late February 2026 (Al Jazeera, 1/6/2026)].
B- [The ‘Israeli’ army issued an evacuation warning to residents of Beirut's southern suburbs hours after Prime Minister Netanyahu announced directives for military escalation. In a statement issued Monday afternoon, the Israeli army said that if Hezbollah continues firing rockets at Israeli cities and towns, it will respond by striking targets in Beirut's southern suburbs (Al Jazeera, 1/6/2026)].
C- Although Al-Arabiya Net published on 2/6/2026, that US President Trump (indicated in a phone call that a minor problem had occurred, but stressed that he had dealt with it very quickly, explaining that it was related to Iranian displeasure with the Israeli attacks on Lebanon, adding, "So, I spoke with Hezbollah, and I said no shooting, and I talked to ‘Bibi’ (Netanyahu), and said, no shooting, and they both stopped shooting each other” (Al-Arabiya.net, 2/6/2026), the Jewish entity did not take this to mean all of Lebanon, but only for the southern suburbs of Beirut, and continued its aggression against the south, naturally with a green light from Trump, whom it cannot disobey, and continued its attacks on southern Lebanon:
[Under the headline: our position will not change in Israel, Netanyahu said that he told Trump that his forces would strike Beirut if Hezbollah did not stop attacking Israel. He added, according to a statement issued by his office, "Our position remains unchanged. At the same time, the army will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon” (Independent Arabia, 2/6/2026)]. [Clashes continued overnight between “Israel” and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon despite Trump's suppressing internal uprisings, the new Supreme Leader relies on them to maintain his rule. Although the political establishment still exists in Iran, including the President, the Foreign Minister, and the Speaker of Parliament, and while their ultimate goal is for Iran to return to the American orbit, their actual influence cannot stand against the Revolutionary Guard.
B- Conversely, America has thus far failed to make the regime in Iran subservient to it, like other agent regimes in Muslim countries. Despite this, Trump remains insistent that the regime in Iran be subservient to him, not orbiting his sphere of influence as it once was, despite his failure in this endeavor. He wants everything from Iran, meaning 100% of his demands, not 90% or 95%, as he says: "I don't want 90%, I don't want 95%. I told them I want everything..." (TV Lebanon, 12/4/2026). And just today, Wednesday, 3/6/2026, he says: "(The Iran situation is) rapidly evolving and it’s evolving good," indicating that Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons... (Al Arabiya, 3/6/2026). While Trump's statements are not entirely accurate, these are his declared positions: that Trump wants Iran to be a subservient state that does not oppose him, despite his failure to achieve this! To cover up this failure, he manipulates words, repeats draft agreements, then goes back and opposes them... and so on!
C- But what will break Trump’s back and other (Trumps) from the kafir colonizers like him, merely for contemplating aggression against Muslim lands, and will send every kafir back to his own home, if he still has one, is the return of the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly Guided Caliphate). And it will return, Allah willing, a promise from Allah (swt):
[وَعَدَ اللَّهُ الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا مِنْكُمْ وَعَمِلُوا الصَّالِحَاتِ لَيَسْتَخْلِفَنَّهُمْ فِي الْأَرْضِ]
“Allah has promised those of you who believe and do good that He will certainly make them successors in the land” [An-Nur: 55], and a glad-tiding from the Messenger of Allah (saw) after this oppressive rule that we are living under: Ahmad narrated from Hudhayfah that he said: «... ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً جَبْرِيَّةً فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ. ثُمَّ سَكَت»“... Then there will be oppressive rule (ملكًا جبرية) for as long as Allah wills, then he will remove it when He wills, and then there will be Khilafah upon the Prophetic method. Then he (saw) was silent.” Thus, there will be a caliph who is fought from behind him and is protected by him, then Islam and the Muslims will be honored, and disbelief and the disbelievers (kufr and kuffar) will be humiliated.
[وَيَوْمَئِذٍ يَفْرَحُ الْمُؤْمِنُونَ * بِنَصْرِ اللَّهِ يَنْصُرُ مَنْ يَشَاءُ وَهُوَ الْعَزِيزُ الرَّحِيمُ]
“And on that day the believers will rejoice * at the victory willed by Allah. He gives victory to whoever He wills. For He is the Almighty, Most Merciful.” [Ar-Rum: 4-5]