Repercussions of the U.S. Withdrawal from Ain al-Asad Base
(Translated)

Al-Rayah Newspaper - Issue 563 - 03/09/2025 CE

By: Ustadh Ahmed al-Taie – Wilayah Iraq

The issue of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq was raised in July 2020 following America’s assassination of Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on 2/1/2020. Shortly afterwards, the Iraqi parliament decided to expel coalition forces from Iraq. Negotiations between Iraq and America continued until September 2024, when they agreed to set September 2025 as the start date for the first phase of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, with the second phase set for September 2026.

Despite this agreement, Iraq has not rid itself of American influence. This is evident in the joint statement from the fourth round of the strategic dialogue between Baghdad and Washington, which declared that “the security relationship will fully transition to a role focused on training, advising, assisting, and sharing intelligence.”

So, what is new about the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Al-Asad Airbase? Why did politicians, as well as the Iraqi street, react with confusion, conflicting stances, and mixed emotions?

The answer is that the withdrawal came suddenly, without coordination with the Iraqi government, and ahead of schedule, as it had been set to begin after the elections, and in coordination with the Iraqi government.

The confusion and doubts were further compounded by the deterioration of Iraq-U.S. relations, due to the insistence of some political forces, represented by the Coordination Framework, on voting for the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) law, which America strongly opposes, threatening economic sanctions if it were passed.

Additionally, the signing of the security agreement between Iraq and Iran on 11/8/2025, aimed at “enhancing joint security efforts on the Iraqi-Iranian border,” which stretches for over 1,400 kilometers, provoked America’s anger, as it seeks to neutralize Iran’s influence in the region, by targeting its allies and interests.

Thus, this sudden withdrawal came as a strong message and a heavy stick against the Iraqi government, should it ignore America’s threats, opening the door to new military scenarios, such as striking faction leaders and bombing their warehouses, or mass protests exploding into a larger uprising than the October 2019 revolution.

This is particularly so since Iraq has fallen into this trap before, just as America did after its 2011 withdrawal, when it was seen as an occupying force. However, America later returned at the request of the Iraqi government after Daesh was allowed and enabled to control nearly a third of Iraq. America presented itself as a “friendly and liberating force.”

This is not a withdrawal but rather a redeployment, as U.S. forces have settled in Erbil. It is not logical that America would withdraw from Iraq so easily and leave it to the armed factions, whose influence has grown stronger than that of the Iraqi government itself.

It seems the threat has worked. MP Hadi al-Salami stated, as reported by Fallujah News, that “the draft law on the Popular Mobilization Authority was withdrawn following a Coordination Framework meeting, with the Prime Minister implementing the decision without returning the law until now.” He further explained that there are efforts to gather MPs’ signatures to place the PMF law on the parliament’s agenda next week, but noted “a lack of clear will among the leaders of the Coordination Framework to pass the law, despite the completion of the first and second readings,” pointing out disagreements among them over positions.

Whatever America is planning, Iraq is not in a position to negotiate. Iraq is simply a country stripped of sovereignty, caught between the hammer of U.S. occupation and the anvil of regional powers and their conflicts, especially Iran and its militias.

Iran, which fuels Iraqi factions and declares they are stronger than before, as stated by the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, “our war against ‘Israel’ is not over, and the Axis of Resistance in Iraq and Lebanon remains alive and strong despite pressures and war,” and at the same time insisted that Tehran does not control them. Iran is not to be trusted, and factions relying on it should take heed. Iran abandoned its Hezb in Lebanon, leaving it prey to the Jewish entity. Iran also left Syria humiliated. Without doubt, Iran is ready to sacrifice pro-Iranian armed factions in Iraq, for its national interests and the survival of its political regime.

In conclusion, the continued presence of U.S. forces is an evil, and their withdrawal in this manner is also an evil. Likewise, the continued grip of this corrupt ruling faction upon the Iraqi people is a great evil. Corruption has shifted from being a passing phenomenon to a firmly built structure, difficult to dismantle. The ruling faction has seized most of the country’s resources for personal gain, which explains their fierce struggle for power and their constant attempts to undermine each other.

All good lies in forcing the American occupier out and liberating Iraq from every form of occupation: military, political, economic, and cultural. This will only happen by uprooting this rotten system and corrupt political faction, once the Ummah becomes aware of its interests, adopts Allah’s Shariah Law as guidance, and rallies around a sincere, aware political leadership. Only then will Iraq, and the entire Muslim world, emerge from loss and darkness into guidance and light.

Allah (swt) said,

[فَآمِنُوا بِاللَّهِ وَرَسُولِهِ وَالنُّورِ الَّذِي أَنزَلْنَا وَاللَّهُ بِمَا تَعْمَلُونَ خَبِيرٌ]

“So believe in Allah and His Messenger and in the Light We have revealed. And Allah is All-Aware of what you do.” [TMQ Surah At-Taghabun: 8].