بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Question:
The Russian presence in the South Caucasus has been shaken “following Armenia and Azerbaijan signing a joint declaration with the United States on a peaceful settlement and agreements in the areas of trade and security after a conflict that had lasted more than 35 years between the two neighbouring countries...” (Al Jazeera, 15/8/2025). Azerbaijan and Armenia issued a joint statement on 11/8/2025, following the agreement signed between them in Washington on 8/8/2025, calling on the other parties to dissolve the Minsk Group, which was formed in 1992 to resolve the issues between the two countries. It stipulated the opening of connections between them for local, bilateral, and international transportation. How was this achieved at a time when relations between them were tense and punctuated by wars, especially in recent times? What were its intended purposes? May Allah reward you.
Answer:
To get a clear answer, let us review the following points:
1- On 9/8/2025, the Armen Press Arabic page published the text of the agreement signed by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the presence of US President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C. It stipulated: "The initialing of the agreed text of the agreement on establishing peace and international relations between the two countries, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the continuation of further efforts toward its final signing, emphasizing the preservation and strengthening of peace between them, and charting a course for a future not determined by past conflicts, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration, which is the declaration related to the agreement on demarcating the borders between the two countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the secession of Azerbaijan and Armenia from it, and mutual recognition between them, respect for sovereignty, and the non-use of force to resolve disputes. The two parties reaffirmed the importance of opening communications between the two countries for domestic, bilateral, and international transportation, based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and jurisdiction of states, in order to promote peace, stability, and prosperity.” These efforts will include unhindered communication between the main part of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan (Nakhchivan) Autonomous Region through the territory of Armenia.")
Thus, the agreement focused on opening communications, transportation, and roads between the two countries, given the importance of this issue. The Nakhchivan region of Azerbaijan is not connected to it, and is cut off by Armenia. To connect, the Azerbaijanis must pass through Iran. The agreement calls for opening a road between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan region. It also calls for opening roads between Azerbaijan and Turkey, since Armenia is located between them. Land communication is only possible through Armenia. By this means, America can strengthen its influence in Azerbaijan, expand its influence in Armenia, and weaken or eliminate Russia's influence there.
2- The agreement also stipulated, as published by the Armen Press Arabic page on 9/8/2025, that ("Armenia will work with the United States and mutually agreed third parties to determine the framework for implementing the communications program through the so-called 'Trump Road to International Peace and Prosperity' (TRIPP) in the territory of Armenia." The United States had previously offered to establish and lease this corridor through an American commercial company. The Middle East Eye website reported on 14/7/2025, that “The United States has proposed taking over the planned transport corridor between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an effort to advance long-stalled diplomatic negotiations between the two Caucasus nations, the US ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, told journalists during a briefing on Friday.” The website quoted Barrack's statements regarding the 32-kilometer corridor, saying: "They are arguing over 32 kilometers of road, but this is no trivial matter. It has dragged on for a decade - 32 kilometers of road…So what happens is that America steps in and says: 'Okay, we’ll take it over. Give us the 32 kilometers of road on a hundred-year lease, and you can all share it'."
This would strengthen American influence in both countries. This is confirmed by what Reuters reported on 8/8/2025, that Armenia has agreed to Trump’s plan to lease a communications corridor with the Republic of Azerbaijan for 100 years, indicating that the United States is seeking to impose its will on the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The former, with the support of Turkey, is seeking to open the road to its geographically separate Nakhchivan region. Armenia sees this agreement as an opportunity to obtain American protection from any potential attack by its neighbour, Azerbaijan, amid Russia’s failure to support it in the recent war. Armenia was defeated and its republic in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which they declared 35 years ago with previous support from Russia, fell.
3- The Middle East Eye website reported that “Azerbaijan has insisted that the corridor should not be placed under Armenia's total control.” It also stated that “Turkey has quietly urged…[the signing of] the peace agreement... Turkey that originally proposed the idea of a private company, approved by both Armenia and Azerbaijan, managing the corridor.”
Erdogan received both Azerbaijani President Aliyev on 19/6/2025, and the following day he received Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, whose visit to Turkey was considered historic. The Turkish President's office reported that "Erdogan stressed 'the importance of the consensus reached in the ongoing peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia... and discussed the potential steps that could be taken within the framework of the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia..." (Al Jazeera, 21/6/2025). Thus, we see that Erdogan has prepared to sign the agreement on behalf of America. He is in America's orbit and provides it with services to expand its influence in the region in exchange for its support in remaining in power, and for Turkey to benefit from the movement of land trade through Armenia to Azerbaijan.
4- The agreement stipulated that they ("expressed their deep gratitude to US President Trump for hosting their summit and significantly contributing to the process of normalizing bilateral relations between the two countries"). US President Trump wanted to highlight his country's role and his personal role in particular, as he loves to stand out and claim every achievement in his name, claiming that he is capable of achieving peace and prosperity. Thus, the road that will be built between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan region via Armenia was named after him (Trump Road). By concluding this agreement between these two countries, Trump also hopes to win the Nobel Peace Prize, for which he was nominated by the Pakistani Army Chief, Munir Asim, and the Prime Minister of the Jewish entity, Netanyahu. It is worth noting that the peace and prosperity that Trump claims to be working to achieve means achieving America's interests, expanding its influence and hegemony over various regions of the world, and restoring its greatness, as he launched the slogan "America First" and "Make America Great Again (MAGA).”
5- The agreement states that ("The signatories to the agreement called on the participating states of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and relevant structures on Minsk to accept the decision"). In other words, Trump is forcing the other states in the Minsk Group to accept this American decision without their participation or even consultation, and without giving them any value or attention. This is especially true for Russia and France, which share the leadership of the Minsk Group with America, which was formed to resolve the Azerbaijani-Armenian problem in 1992 by decision of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe! America signed this agreement independently of Russia and scheduled it before President Trump's meeting with his Russian counterpart, Putin, to avoid any objection from Russia, which should be involved in the matter as it has influence in the region, especially in Armenia, having lost its influence in Azerbaijan, and as one of the leaders of the Minsk Group. He asked it, as he asked others in the group, to recognize and bless this agreement. Instead of Russia intervening and objecting, it did nothing to demonstrate the weakness of its position and the weakness of its influence, which is on the verge of disappearing in Armenia.
6- It appears that Russia is not in a position to intervene and forcefully object, thus influencing Armenia to prevent it from further strengthening its relations with America. It has preferred to go along with the situation, as if satisfied with what is happening, while sending warnings to Armenia to avoid losing it permanently. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, “Therefore, the meeting between the leaders of the South Caucasus republics in Washington, facilitated by the United States, merits a positive assessment. We hope this step will advance a peaceful agenda.” However, she stressed “direct dialogue without third-party mediation.” and warned that “Involvement of actors outside the region should contribute to strengthening the peace agenda rather than create additional difficulties and dividing lines.” (Ministry of Russian Foreign Affairs; Al Jazeera, 9/8/2025). In other words, she is warning against the penetration of American influence there. Armenia had previously been warned against allying with the West. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 24/7/2025, that (“While Armenia has the right to choose its political direction, Moscow hopes to avoid a repetition of the geopolitical shift witnessed in Ukraine.” He emphasized that “Russia still considers Armenia an ally and wants it to continue cooperating with us.” (Al Jazeera, 25/7/2025). This threatens Armenia with the fate of Ukraine, where Russia lost its influence following the fall of its agent Yanukovych in 2014 after America and Europe incited the Ukrainians to revolt against him. Last year, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan announced in an interview with France 24 on 23/2/2023, (“the freezing of Armenia’s practical participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization... because it has not achieved its goals regarding Armenia”).
Russia did not defend Armenia when Azerbaijan attacked it in 2020 and 2023, forcing it out of the territories it occupied in Azerbaijan. We had mentioned in a Question to Answer issued on 4/10/2023 that (Russia has most likely realized that this war is directed and planned against it by America through Erdogan’s Turkey and Azerbaijan, which has become its guardian, and will occupy it to no avail and disperse its forces. It is now focusing on its war in Ukraine, which is a fateful war that it does not want to lose. Russia knows that if it loses it, it will lose everything, and if it wins it, it will be able to restore its influence in the areas it has lost. At the same time, it does not want to clash with Turkey, which it needs in these circumstances and the blockade imposed on it. It is its gateway to the Western world. It also wants to maintain its relations with Azerbaijan, as it has investments there, especially in energy resources worth $6 billion. The volume of trade exchange between them is more than $4 billion. As for Armenia, it depends on it in everything...it is not unlikely that it will restore it to its full influence as it was if it won the war in Ukraine).
7- America has neglected Europe, especially France, which co-leads the Minsk Group. Trump has thus marginalized Europe, led by France, as he did with Russia, leaving the issue to his own devices. Indeed, Azerbaijan and Armenia have issued a joint letter calling for the dissolution of the Minsk Group. A statement issued by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry on 11/8/2025, stated, ("The foreign ministers of the two countries addressed a joint letter to the OSCE Chairman-in-Office to terminate the Minsk Group." "Following this call, a draft resolution on ending the Minsk process and related structures was circulated among the OSCE participating states." It called on "Azerbaijan and Armenia to support the necessary measures to adopt this decision." (Azerbaijani State News Agency, 11/8/2025). Thus, America is eliminating any European influence on this issue, allowing it to dominate the issue and extend its influence there. The two countries began implementing the agreement quickly, including (“withdrawing all mutual claims and disputes between them at the international level, as stipulated in the agreement” (the same source). France was forced to announce its acceptance of the dissolution of the Minsk Group and has had no role or influence since 2020, after Azerbaijan declared war on Armenia and then regained its territories, which the Minsk Group did not benefit from by regaining them, as the group claimed to be working on this through peaceful means. France began to flatter America so as not to appear to have lost and is looking for a role to play there. It claimed that it supports the agreement, even though it was the one that openly supported the Armenians against Azerbaijan.
8- Trump also neglected Turkey, which was waiting for its president, Erdogan, to be rewarded for his services by inviting him to Washington to attend the signing of the agreement. Erdogan played a significant role in supporting Azerbaijan and enabling it to defeat Armenia and liberate its occupied territories, thanks to American planning. But even this was begrudged by Trump, as he saw no need to finalize this agreement. Otherwise, he would have summoned Erdogan to Washington, or asked him to speak by phone with Azerbaijani President Aliyev, as he asked him to speak by phone with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during his meeting with him in Riyadh on 13/5/2025, to comply with American demands. But in the Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement, he ignored him! Thus, the kaffir (disbelieving) colonizers reap the fruits, while others who revolve in their orbit or are agents plow and toil for them in exchange for their reward of remaining in power. And even this does not always happen. Will they not understand?!
9- Trump is keen to show off America's greatness and his own greatness, and that he is the only person in the world who can make peace and accomplish difficult tasks, wage economic wars against enemies and friends, and ignite bloody wars directly or through the Jewish entity, as he did recently in Iran. He openly supports the Jewish entity in killing, starving and displacing the people of Gaza with no shame or fear to achieve his project of transforming it into a resort and without anyone being able to intervene to stop the genocide there or to bring in a morsel of bread in a proper way! He forgot that Allah had destroyed before him generations of people who were stronger, more numerous, and more deadly “than him and his country, America, and his base, the Jewish entity.” He forgot, or pretended to forget, that the Islamic Ummah, no matter how much oppression, subjugation, and injustice befalls it from its rulers, the allies of the kuffar, will rise up and revolt against them, overthrow them, and hand over its authority to one who is worthy from amongst it to rule it according to what Allah has revealed, thus restoring the Khilafah Rashidah (Rightly-Guided Caliphate) after this oppressive rule in which we live, in fulfillment of the glad-tiding of the Messenger of Allah (saw) in His noble Hadith that was narrated by Ahmad on the authority of Hudhayfah, who said: The Messenger of Allah (saw) said:
«... ثُمَّ تَكُونُ مُلْكاً جَبْرِيَّةً فَتَكُونُ مَا شَاءَ اللَّهُ أَنْ تَكُونَ، ثُمَّ يَرْفَعُهَا إِذَا شَاءَ أَنْ يَرْفَعَهَا، ثُمَّ تَكُونُ خِلَافَةً عَلَى مِنْهَاجِ النُّبُوَّةِ. ثُمَّ سَكَتَ»
“Then there will be an oppressive rule (ملكًا جبرية), and it will last for as long as Allah wishes, then He will lift it if He wishes. Then there will be a Khilafah on the method of Prophethood.” Then he (saw) fell silent. And it carries its message to the world and spreads it, as stated in the noble Hadith narrated by Ahmad on the authority of Tamim al-Dari, who said: I heard the Messenger of Allah (saw) say:
«لَيَبْلُغَنَّ هَذَا الْأَمْرُ مَا بَلَغَ اللَّيْلُ وَالنَّهَارُ، وَلَا يَتْرُكُ اللَّهُ بَيْتَ مَدَرٍ وَلَا وَبَرٍ إِلَّا أَدْخَلَهُ اللَّهُ هَذَا الدِّينَ، بِعِزِّ عَزِيزٍ أَوْ بِذُلِّ ذَلِيلٍ؛ عِزّاً يُعِزُّ اللَّهُ بِهِ الْإِسْلَامَ، وَذُلّاً يُذِلُّ اللَّهُ بِهِ الْكُفْر»
“There will not remain on the face of the earth a mud-brick house or a camel’s hair tent which Allah will not cause the confession of Islam to enter bringing both mighty honour and abject abasement. Allah will either honour the occupants and put them among its adherents, or will humiliate them and they will be subject to it.”This will happen by Allah’s permission.
[إِنَّ اللَّهَ بَالِغُ أَمْرِهِ قَدْ جَعَلَ اللَّهُ لِكُلِّ شَيْءٍ قَدْراً]
“Certainly Allah achieves His Will. Allah has already set a destiny for everything” [At-Talaq: 3]